So I talk and think a lot about poker these days. I'm not so different from a lot of people out there who watch the World Series of Poker, World Poker Tour, and such. I probably take it a little bit more seriously than most though. A question that comes up fairly often or is at least lurking under the surface of many conversations I've had lately is related to just how difficult it is to be a poker professional. I'll tell you my friends, it's pretty damn hard. I've done a lot of "research" at the tables and outside of them, so let me share my opinion on the topic.
The way I see it, there are several skills that you need to possess to have a shot. The first of them is the easy one. You have to know the math of the game. You have to know by looking at your hand how many cards left to come will help you and how likely you are to hit them. For example, if you have a middle pair with an open ended straight draw, there are probably 10 cards in the deck (outs) that help you. These are the other two that make you three of a kind and any card that completes your straight. Victory is by no means assured, but you would be feeling good if you get one of these cards. After the flop in Texas Hold 'em, you need to know that this means you have about a 38% chance of filling up (completing a winning hand) before you start betting. Making this evaluation is a good start after you see a flop in texas hold 'em. I'm skipping the starting requirements(which cards to play before the flop) discussion for brevity and because it doesn't really fit here.
After seeing the flop, you then need to figure out how much you are going to have to put in the pot relative to the likely pot size and determine whether it's worth it to make the call. To do that you need to know how your opponents have been betting and what is likely to happen after you make your decision. Again, you're basically trying to determine mathematically if putting more dough into this pot is a good idea or not. If your odds of cathing a winning hand (in this case 38%) is greater than the ratio of money you still have to put in relative to the pot size at the end, you should remain in the hand. This isn't so easy to figure out, but with practice it gets a little easier.
If you can do those two things, you can be a pretty good poker player. This will probably be enough to make you profitable at lower limit tables. These skills are kind of like knowing how to play every scenario in a blackjack game. For example, you know that when you have a 14 against a dealer showing a 6, you don't take a hit. Maybe you bought one of those strategy cards once, and memorized all of the scenarios. Anyone who has played blackjack though knows that the casino still has slight edge against you, even if you play flawlessly. Your pocketbook knows it too. Now if you could remember and count all of the cards in the deck that came out, then you would be on to something. Then, you could turn the edge in your favor and make some money, like those M.I.T. kids.
Counting cards in black jack is like reading players in poker, but it's easier to count cards. If you can figure out what your opponent is holding, it makes you a much more profitable poker player. Some times you can figure that out by the way he or she bets. This is the most common "tell", the betting pattern. Usually though, a strong player won't reveal anything here. If you want to be one of the best, you need to be able to read "strength" or "weakness" from body language, unconscious actions, words, the way chips are tossed, etc. You need to be able to determine what your opponent has by what they do and say. The greatest players all have this ability. This is much harder to acquire, but if you are going to make your living playing poker and be one of the best, this is something you need in your back pocket. This is going to have to second nature to you. You don't have to always be right, but you need to at least be close the majority of the time. If you can put your opponents on hands consistently, you don't even need the math. You can just play the game "blind". This allows you to win a lot of pots with cards that aren't very good by applying pressure to your opponents when you know their hand isn't overly strong.
If I've got one piece of advice for aspiring poker players, it's this. Don't focus so much on what's in your hand. What you are holding is important but it's secondary to knowing what your opponent is holding. If you are going to be good (and not even professional level good), you should constantly be trying to figure out what your opponent has. Every hand is a lesson, even if you aren't involved. Watching your opponents and how they play their hands is integral to learning, so watch religiously even if you aren't in the hand.
That said, I am not even close to a professional. I doubt that I ever will be good enough for that. I would have to devote a lot of time and money to get that good. There may be a bunch of suckers online right now from what I hear, but I'm not sure that will hold up forever. Online poker isn't exactly pure poker either. You don't win the World Series by playing online, I can tell you that. Maybe you and I could pick up a few bucks playing online. From the sounds of it, everyone is winning money online. Obviously that can't be the case. Poker is a zero-sum game, someone wins and someone loses. There are very few that can win consistently and even fewer that can win enough to support themselves. Even those that can would tell you that sitting at a poker table for eight hours a day isn't exactly a great time when your livelihood depends on it.
All of that said, I love the game. For me and for most of us though, it's probably just a great hobby. There are definitely worse things.
